Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Crocs... nice shoes... But 1.91 billion market cap?

These shoes are great and really comfortable, but at the end of the day is a stock price really worth $50? Sure they are experiencing great profits and high demand. Unfortunately, that is only temporary, as competitors rush to market. Walmart is even making a knock off version. By next quarter the market will be saturated and the thrill will be over. Besides this company can't sustain this type of revenue growth over the long term of 90% (from 04 to 05) Let's face it, this stock is like an 80's one hit wonder. A 36.1% short ratio? this stock is doomed to fail. If you made money going up, you should make money going down.

Recommendation: Short at $50, buy back at $20.

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Saturday, February 24, 2007

Dont' drink the Coke (CCE)


I currently don't recommend this stock but i would start looking at around $15. I believe with the hit CCE is going to take for the 2.6 billion dollar restructuring charge, the price will drop due to lack of investor (mutual funds) confidence. This is a "workhorse" of stock. Management has been slow to adjust to the changing beverage market, but has started to catch up, with the purchase of Fuze and Arizona tea company. RECOMMENDED BUY AT $15-$16 RANGE. Email if you want more details.

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Short the donuts!


This stock is highly recommended for the speculations aspect of your portfolio. I have made money on the way up and the way down. Recently this stock has been pumped up because the fact KKD has finally produced it financial statements for the last three years. The stock will now going to tank for a while, until they can generate some cash.


Regardless the quality of the donut stays the same and there is lots of room for expansion.

I recommend shorting the stock at $11 and buying back at $7 or $8.


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